The IMF published its concluding statement on the official IMF website on October 8, highlighting that a booming mining sector—particularly driven by increased copper production and surging commodity prices—is powerfully fueling Mongolia's economy. According to the report, this expansion has significantly bolstered overall economic growth, exports, gross foreign exchange reserves, and fiscal revenues.
At the end of the mission, Tahsin Saadi Sedik, who led the IMF team, issued a statement highlighting the following key points.
“Mongolian economy grew faster than expected in the first half of 2026 supported by a booming mining production, with growth reaching 7.7 percent. Aided by high prices for copper and coal, the external position and fiscal outturn also improved: gross international reserves rose to USD 8.9 billion by end-September, and buoyant mining revenues balanced the budget despite a 20 percent y-o-y increase in spending through August. Bank credit growth slowed to about 14 percent y-o-y in August, reflecting earlier macroprudential and monetary tightening.
“Inflation accelerated to 12.9 percent in September, well above the BOM’s target range of 6±2 percent, amid a food price shock and acute fuel shortages caused by intermittent supply disruptions. Although there has been no impact on mining operations so far, the economy remains vulnerable to renewed supply disruptions. Core inflation edged up, and inflation expectations rose. In August, the BOM raised the policy rate and domestic reserve requirements by 50 basis points each, to 12.5 and 14.5 percent, respectively.
“For 2026 overall, economic growth is expected to remain robust at 6.2 percent, as stronger mining activity offsets weaker growth in other sectors. The external position is also expected to improve, driven by mining exports.
Furthermore, the IMF concluded that while high dependence on mining revenues serves as the basis for budget expansion in both the 2026 budget amendment and the 2027 budget, this expansionary stance could pose serious risks to inflation and other macroeconomic indicators.
